Nuclear War Imminent, Experts Warn
Following the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which resulted in 26 fatalities, India and Pakistan have suspended diplomatic ties, closed borders, and expelled diplomats. Both nations have mobilized military forces along the Line of Control, leading to fears of a potential nuclear conflict. The United States and United Nations have urged de-escalation, with Russia and Iran offering mediation services.
Following the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 individuals, including 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali guide, India and Pakistan have taken a series of retaliatory actions, escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
🇮🇳 India’s Response
In the wake of the attack, India has implemented several measures:
- Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: India has suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a move that has raised concerns in Pakistan regarding water security.
- Diplomatic Expulsions: India expelled several Pakistani diplomats and withdrew its own diplomats from Islamabad.
- Border Closures: The Attari-Wagah border, the only road crossing between the two countries, has been closed, halting overland trade and people-to-people exchanges.
- Military Exercises: India conducted “Exercise Aakraman,” involving Rafale and Su-30 aircraft, to enhance operational readiness and offensive capabilities.
🇵🇰 Pakistan’s Countermeasures
Pakistan has responded with several countermeasures:
- Suspension of the Shimla Agreement: Pakistan suspended the 1972 Shimla Agreement, which emphasized the peaceful resolution of bilateral disputes.
- Closure of Airspace and Trade: Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and halted all trade with India.
- Diplomatic Expulsions: Pakistan expelled Indian diplomats and reduced the staff size at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
- Military Threats: Pakistani officials have made statements threatening the use of nuclear weapons, further escalating concerns.
🌍 International Reactions
The international community has expressed concern over the escalating tensions:
- United Nations: UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for maximum restraint from both countries and offered to mediate if both parties agree.
- Russia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has offered Russia’s assistance in helping India and Pakistan resolve their differences over Kashmir.
- Iran: Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has expressed Tehran’s willingness to mediate between the two countries, emphasizing the centuries-old cultural ties between India and Pakistan.
⚠️ Military Escalation Risks
Both India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since their 2019 skirmish, heightening the risks of a more intense conflict. The involvement of external actors like China, a key ally of Pakistan, and the U.S., which has strategic ties with India, further complicates the regional power dynamics. Experts warn that while nuclear weapons are unlikely to be used unless the situation escalates severely, the current military posture and increased appetite for conflict among decision-makers from both sides make even limited engagements potentially dangerous.